When Exceptions are Made


REVIEW - As you all know, on Tuesday, I made an exception. I not only held onto my Euro exposure but increased it. I have spent a lot of time talking about what I believe should be another big decline in the Dollar and the bullish EURUSD breakout we saw in September had really done a good job convincing me that we were getting closer to seeing this play out. And because of this, I had taken the initial long position into a correction. But as we moved into a long holiday weekend in the US, I was worried the thinner conditions would compromise my position and did not want to fall victim to this, especially with my conviction running so high. And so, I stepped outside my conventions to make a tough decision - but a decision that I felt very good about.

cartoon oct 10

REMINDER - Still, it's important to note, I believe wholeheartedly in the priority of discipline in trading and I don't want this to come off as being a situation that looks like I am endorsing a break from maintaining a rigid level of discipline. This should not be the takeaway. The takeaway is more about making exceptions, when you know they will never turn into the rule. We can never devise a system that accounts for all scenarios and because of this, there are going to be times where you will need to be responsible and make a decision that makes sense. I do not necessarily recommend that exceptions are made for those just starting out, as in these cases, a trader MUST err on the side of caution and discipline. But once proven over time, I think it becomes important that you are able to make a decision where you are required to step outside your defined parameters.

Making exceptions is ok, so long as it doesn't come with the price of the exception becoming a rule.

OTHER FACTORS - As far as positions go, the fact that I had some in the money exposure long GBPUSD, was also a help to the decision made with the Euro on Tuesday. We have since booked a very healthy profit on that Cable long and this has been a nice development. I continue to see the Pound in position to get back to doing what it had been doing earlier this year, when it was trading towards 1.4500 and making post EU referendum highs. There have certainly been a lot of bumps this year relating to Brexit, and more than even I had anticipated. Still, I believe we are getting closer to that Brexit deal, and when that happens, the Pound can get back to taking on its traditional role as a currency that has been very strong and a currency whose traditional strength could be an even bigger driver of appreciation in a world where every other currency wants to be weak for export and trade purposes.....even the US Dollar.


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