DON'T THINK TWICE - So, I finally parted ways with this latest AUDNZD position on Monday. I had said I'd need to reassess if we traded back down to cost and sure enough, Friday's setback opened more downside momentum back to out entry area. No. it's very possible the market jumps back up from here and ends up pushing much higher as anticipated. But it's also not worth the risk from my years of experience. The psychological setback from seeing a position that was in the money for a few weeks, that came back down and then ended up trading for a loss, is just not worth hanging on. This is an important lesson I have learned over the years and I don't even think twice about it anymore. Sure, this means we are once again back on the sidelines in what has been a painfully slow 2018. But I'm perfectly ok with that, as I know how quickly things change and how damaging it can be if you start forcing trades that aren't really there.
FADING THE POUND - As far as that next trade goes, I have said that I really like seeing the Pound lower against the US Dollar, before it looks to extend the impressive run we've seen over the past several months. And so, this has set up a great opportunity to fade this latest attempt to the topside in the early week, ahead of Thursday's BOE decision. There is plenty of risk ahead of the BOE decision that could also get things moving, with UK earnings and inflation due, along with the FOMC decision on Wednesday. While I do like the Pound higher over the medium and longer-term, I think there is still enough Brexit uncertainty with respect to the transition, that can get the Pound turning back down. As far as AUDNZD goes, I will keep looking on and will be happy to take another shot and jump back in, if the opportunity presents. Overall, yes...it's been boring! But boring is GOOD! I'm not here to give you all a rush. I'm here to help remind you of the important things and to help ensure your decision making is tiptop.