FOMC MINUTES - There were no big surprises in the Fed Minutes and I don't believe the Fed did anything to have any impact on anyone's outlook. If you were bullish the market, you were feeling fine with the Fed Minutes and if you were bearish, you were also ok. This could be the way it goes until it finally comes time for the Fed to actually make that next move. Even Friday's employment report takes on less meaning, with the Fed already starting to think less about the data and more about the need to normalize policy. I'm in the US Dollar bullish, equities bearish camp as you all know, and from my point of view, it all continues to point that way.
SOME TAKEAWAYS - I was actually intrigued by the fact that the Minutes highlighted, albeit in a downplayed way, concern over the low volatility environment and elevated equities. This sentiment wasn't shared in an overwhelming way, but the fact that it continues to grow, certainly reflects a rising concern over the outlook for financial markets and this need for the Fed (and other central banks) to be moving more towards policy normalization. Looking ahead, it's hard to say any economic data, be it out of the US or anywhere else, will serve as that catalyst triggering a major pullback in risk and safe haven rally in the Buck. But it all points in this direction in my opinion and it feels like we're getting closer and closer to that point.
STRATEGY - As far as the strategy goes, there still hasn't been much to talk about. GOLD has been exceptionally well supported on dips since 2016 and following this latest intense pullback, the opportunity to play into this trend and buy at what looks to be attractive levels has been highly compelling. Whether or not it plays out is not of consequence, as the position lines up and all of the fundamentals that I see are majorly supportive of the yellow metal into this dip. Meanwhile, USDCAD needs to establish back above 1.3050 to get going and AUDNZD needs to see a daily close above 1.0550. And as we all know full well at this point, we can't have any conversation about the SPX500 until we break back below 2400.