Fed Minutes Reflections


RECAP - The Fed Minutes have come and gone and the market hasn't really had much to say about it. The US Dollar has come under some pressure in the aftermath despite the Fed calling for a rate hike 'fairly soon,' perhaps on concurrent concerns in the Minutes over the ability for the Trump administration to deliver on what would be US Dollar supportive fiscal policy. And after all, 'fairly soon' doesn't really mean anything at all. So to think that it means a March hike would be silly, which in turn is yet another reason the market has probably been selling US Dollars. I will continue to monitor the developments and although we haven't seen any major moves just yet, there are increasing signs of volatility around the corner, particularly as the VIX begins to push up from depressed levels.

POSITIONS - As far as the trading goes, I continue to sit back on the SPX500 short and am now excited to finally be back in on the FX side with this EURAUD long position. It's never easy trying to pick a spot for reversal, but I really love this trade and believe the case for a strong move to the upside is highly compelling. Still we will need to see a break back above 1.3900 to really get this trade going. As far as the SPX500 goes, we will need to see a daily close below 2335 to start to think about that trade getting back on track. I have little doubt that once the trade gets back on track it will accelerate. But first things first, it needs to get back on track and that track is waiting at 2335. 

Signs of major pickup in #volatility. Via @joelkruger



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