One Month Blocks

OUTLOOK - We're off to a slow start in February. No trades yet this month, though I would love to see something set up. I suppose I'm a little ok with the lack of action right now given my week off the desk. But I suspect something will come along sooner than later. Wednesday price action was a real snoozer. But what we did see which I thought made a lot of sense, was the renewed selling of the US Dollar. I continue to expect the Dollar will slide over the short term and extend its run of declines in 2017. I don't think that next big Dollar recovery is far off, but I still think we see some more Dollar weakness before the Dollar really starts to reassert for a very big move. 

NOT SO LONG - But it's so important to remember that if there are no trades coming to us, we shouldn't force anything. All it takes is one or two good trades in a given month and the next thing you know, we've had a really nice month. A month is a very long time when trading and it's funny how when you look back at the end of any given month where there was a period of a week or two of no trading, that all the sudden it feels like that very long period was nothing at all. So right now it may feel like a major drought, but the reality is, we could be trading today tomorrow or next week and we won't have remembered how slow things were initially. It's really important to think in blocks of one month at a time. I would say that if at the end of an entire month there was no trading, then maybe there is reason to be concerned about the lack of opportunity. And I can't remember that happening too many times over the course of my career. 

There will be days where you won't be trading and that's a good thing. Via @joelkruger

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