Down Days


PART OF THE GAME - So a little bit about trading. If you think every day is going to be a great day, you will be majorly disappointed. There are going to be periods when you trade that the market isn't doing what you want it to. But that's fine. It's supposed to happen. I have been having a good month but this week, things haven't been great. I was forced to take a loss on an SPX short and I am sitting on an out of the money AUDNZD long. Sure. It's frustrating when things aren't going your way. But it's also a part of the game. The important thing is that you understand this and know that if you stick with it, you will find the good days far outnumber the bad and it all is well worth it. Since the inception of the JKonFX portfolio in 2014, there have been many bad days, but at the same time, when you look at the results, those bad days are buried in so many more good days. 

POSITIONS - With that said, let me spend some time talking positions. I still have the smaller portion of my SPX500 short and I am just sitting back with this one and waiting for that next big drop which I expect will play out at some point in this first quarter of 2017, if not more imminently than that. I have no stress with the position, which is very important and I am excited to see how it all unfolds in the days ahead. Fundamentally, there continues to be very little that would encourage a continued record run and now that the Dow has finally taken out 20k, perhaps we can finally see this reversal take place. The market has no more psychological barriers it should be preoccupied with, so arguable, it will be less exciting to see this push continue and more importantly, I suspect many bulls will now be looking to take profit around this milestone. 

Many trades need room to work. Make sure you accommodate for that before jumping in. Via @joelkruger

MORE - As far as AUDNZD goes, this trade is in its infancy. Time and again this market has been exceptionally well supported on dips, and although we have yet to see the major breakout I have been projecting, the market also looks comfortable not going much lower. Again, my position is virtually unleveraged on a US Dollar basis and I am looking for this round of setbacks to hold above 1.0200, which is just below the 2016 base. It may take a few more sessions to start to see follow through, but I am confident in the prospect for a push back towards 1.0700 over the next few weeks. Aside from these two positions, we are seeing increasing volatility and while I'm not sure what the next trade will be, I'm excited to jump on it when it comes our way. Stand by. 

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