Not the Year You Thought

REALITY - If you ask people which currency dominated in 2016, many will tell you the US Dollar was the one. And yet, interestingly enough, when you look at the US Dollar's performance over the past 12 months, the results are far less compelling, if even at all. While the Buck was up against the Pound, Swiss Franc, Euro and Australian Dollar, it was actually down against GOLD, the Yen, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. It's even funny when you think about the fact that GOLD was up the most against the Buck last year considering the intense declines in the yellow metal into year end. Perhaps it's equally as odd the Yen was up against the Buck in 2016 when you think about the seamlessly non-stop Yen selling these past few months. 

OUTLOOK - So what does this all mean? Well, other than the fact that it's interesting in that the year was clearly not what it might have felt like it actually was, it also could mean that the US Dollar hasn't run its course just yet and could still be poised for a period of across the board gains. Remember, the Fed is finally back on track with its path to policy normalization and there is still plenty out there that would keep the rest of the central banking world from moving in the same direction. I suspect we do see one more across the board push in the Buck's favor in early 2017, before it then is finally time to consider the possibility of a longer-term bottom for the US Dollar. As far as the trading goes, I only have my short exposure in the SPX500 and AUDNZD is the only other trade that looks like it could set up over the coming sessions. Let's see. 

The US Dollar didn't have the year most people thought. Via @joelkruger

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