Going with the Flow


COULDN'T EXECUTE - So the bad news is I wasn't able to execute my plan of booking profit on my short SPX500 position and am still holding on. As it happened, I had written the report for Monday on Sunday and had been planing on exiting on the Monday open around where we closed out on Friday, which was 2085. But then came the news of the FBI clearing Clinton and of course, the market shot up on the Monday open, leaving me no chance to exit at what I had thought to be a good price. And so, I'm just holding on as per the original plan, with the good news that I'm still well in the money.

HEAD SCRATCHER - Other than that, I have my long USDCHF and AUDNZD positions. USDCHF was a little frustrating on Monday. Though we fed see a nice bounce on the Clinton news, the market didn't rally as much as I would have thought given the risk on, USD Dollar supportive development. Part of the reason for the disappointment came from the reaction in EURCHF, which ended up trading lower despite what should normally be a higher EURCHF rate in those conditions. So I was left scratching my head. I am however expecting a higher USDCHF rate on confirmation of a Clinton win.

KIWI WEAKNESS - AUDNZD has been looking good into Tuesday after the market put in a bullish outside day performance. We are going to get the RBNZ later this week and with most of last week's Kiwi bullishness now priced in, the timing seems ripe for Kiwi to start to underperform again, with AUDNZD bottoming out and getting ready to push back up through 1.0700. Remember, odds are the RBNZ will indeed cut and with the exchange rate sitting back up at current levels, it will be yet another reason the central bank will want to lean more dovish in its statement. 

Opportunities will come so make sure you don't force any trades in advace. Via @joelkruger

ELECTION TIP - As far as today and the election goes, my advice is no different than any other time. Just sit back and wait. Opportunities will come so don't make the mistake of forcing anything that isn't there or else you will regret it when that trade comes along and you are distracted with the crappy you trade you never should have taken. If Clinton wins, the expectation is that the US Dollar will rally some more against the major currencies, while stocks will also push higher. If Trump somehow pulls it out, it will be real ugly for risk assets. Let's see what happens. 


Only in Their Infancy

We have some new trades open but they will need more time to really get going.

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