Fed Comes and Goes Quietly


THINK AGAIN - If you thought the Fed would be a big event this week, you thought wrong. It was pretty much a given the decision would go off without a hitch, with Wednesday's FOMC viewed as nothing more than a place holder meeting ahead of the very important December meet. I had jokingly called this week's docket of central bank meetings 'non-event risk,' with no changes expected on policy across the board. Of course, we still have the Bank of England today, which might be a little more interesting considering all of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. I continue to like the idea of looking to buy the Pound, but more so against the Euro than the US Dollar and will be looking to sell EURGBP if it sets up today. 

REUNION - As far as the current positions go, I bought USDCHF and am holding an out of the money long position from 0.9791. I continue to hang onto my SPX500 short from 2173 and will be looking for an acceleration of declines towards 1990. Finally, I managed to jump back into one of my favorites (AUDNZD) into this latest dip. I had actually initially sold NZDCAD on Wednesday after that cross rate exploded higher, but with AUDNZD still dropping and NZDCAD unwinding the overbought readings, the opportunity was there to book profit on NZDCAD and roll into long AUDNZD instead. Weeks ago I exited my long AUDNZD position for a nice profit and am happy to get back in. Data out of New Zealand has been great this week, but it shouldn't change the overall picture which I believe favors the Australian Dollar. 

One solid 24 hour stretch for the New Zealand Dollar shouldn't change the bigger picture. Via @joelkruger


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