Thoughts and Trades


WHO KNOWS? - I'm not really sure how anyone can have a strong opinion on US Dollar direction right now. If you asked me what I thought (and you do), I would tell you I am a Dollar bull. My views are grounded in the fact that if the US economy is looking good, the Fed will raise rates which will serve the US Dollar well on the yield differential front. If on the other hand the US economy isn't doing well, it will  probably be reflective of a slower global economy, which would support the US Dollar on safe haven flow. But when it comes down to it, I have no US Dollar exposure right now for a reason. 

NOWHERE - Simply put, when you look at what's been going on over the past few months, we haven't really gone anywhere at all and there is a general lack of conviction. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise with the VIX trading down where it is, reflecting the low volatility world we are in right now. But in theory, we could easily go either way when we finally do break and I wouldn't be shocked if the US Dollar takes a hard hit for whatever the reason. The basic point I'm trying to make is to always double check your views when nothing has been going on for a while. 

LOVIN IT - It's true. Many times we need to sit back and wait for positions to work out. I am a big believer in this. But at the same time, you need to know the difference between a position that you believe needs time to work and a position that no longer is what it once was because time has dragged on. Remember, it's important that you always LOVE the trades you're taking. So if you're sitting back on something you LOVE, by all means. But if the trade you love has been doing nothing to the point where you aren't loving it any longer, step aside and wait for the next one. 

If the market hasn't been going anywhere for a while, make sure you still love the trade. Via @joelkruger

STRATEGY - As far as strategy goes, I'm sitting on my short SPX500 position and still loving it. I'm looking for that big drop and I suspect we will see it when the market takes out the September low at 2108. Until then, I'm just sitting back and waiting - but still loving. As per today's technical update, I would love to jump back in and buy GOLD on a little more of a dip and just haven't seen the right setup just yet. But I am waiting and if it comes then great. If not, no worries man. It feels like everything could start to move soon, so let's see if we can do some more trading before the month is out.


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