The Power of Fischer


  • Wave of hawkish Fed speak 
  • Stanley Fischer offers hints into Yellen
  • Choppy summer price action

FED BETS - The economic calendar hasn't really been all that market moving this week, though things pick up a bit today with German IFO and US durable goods on tap. The biggest story this week is the possibility the Fed may once again be thinking a little more hawkish than the market has been pricing and whether or not Yellen will confirm this fact when she speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow. But US new home sales at a 9 year high is helping the hawkish storyline along and again, if Yellen confirms, this will be bullish USD and bearish stocks.


THE VICE CHAIR - The biggest hint that Yellen could very well confirm this hawkish shift comes from the recent Fed Vice Chair Fischer remarks in which the Fed official wouldn't rule out another rate hike this year. Fischer is a seasoned central banker and could very well be the most accomplished member on the FOMC. So to hear Fischer out with comments that are a little more hawkish than what the market is pricing, could really be a bigger deal than the market has led on thus far this week. 

Stanley Fischer could very well be the most accomplished member on the FOMC Via @joelkruger

SUMMER TRADE - So right now, I'm just sitting back on my current positions, not really expecting any new trade setups over the coming hours. I suppose it's also worth noting that August is notoriously light when it comes to FX volumes, with a good portion of traders off the desks and out on holiday. This doesn't mean we don't get volatility, but it could mean more choppy up and down trade until things get back to more normal conditions in early September. Let's see how it all plays out. 

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