- USDCAD starting to look good
- AUDNZD and SPX500 sitting
- Hawkish comments fromVice Chair Fischer
BACK INTO THE SWING - Good to be back on the desk after some travel. Hope your weekend and Monday went well. As far as the portfolio goes, while AUDNZD and SPX500 haven't been doing much, USDCAD has moved up nicely into the new week, with the push establishing momentum for our long position. I continue to project a good amount of upside ahead for USDCAD and will be looking to keep holding the long position over the coming sessions. I've also just established a fresh NZDUSD short trade in early Tuesday trade. See the trade journal.
KNOW WHEN TO FOLD - Though nothing is going on with AUDNZD and SPX500, I am expecting big things from both trades and will continue to be patient here. Still, I won't hold on forever and if AUDNZD looks to be wanting to establish back under 1.0400 or if the SPX500 wants to start living above 2200, it will be time to reconsider these positions. Strong conviction is one thing, but it's always important to know when it just isn't working out and know how to take to the sidelines - probably one of the toughest things to do as a trader.
FISCHER - Looking at the broader macro picture and US Dollar outlook, the biggest development this week has been the hawkish comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer who isn't willing to rule out a 2016 rate hike. This is important because it is yet another Fed official that isn't willing to rule out a hike, which is US Dollar supportive on yield implications. It's also important because it flags what the Fed Chair will have to say when she steps up to the podium on the 26th. Fischer has always been a big influence on Yellen and so he's probably given us a good idea what to expect.
TAKEAWAY - Again, the important takeaway here is US Dollar bullish and equity market bearish. If the market has to start pricing a more hawkish Fed again, this takes away from any interest in wanting to be long risk assets, with lower for longer no longer an acceptable reality. This marks the beginning of a new world economy where accommodative central bank policy no longer means what it has since the onset of the financial markets crisis in 2008.