Back to the Unusual Normal

  • Market doesn't care about political risk
  • Portfolio back on track after slow 4 weeks
  • Looking for new opportunity in USDJPY

POLITICS - The week has kicked off to a fairly quiet start and for the most part it's pretty much back to the unusual normal. Stocks are back on track and pushing to record highs, despite ongoing hiccups on the geopolitical front. I'd say one of the most interesting things going on around the world right now is the split down the middle within countries over the ideology and path the country should take. Clearly, we've seen this in the UK this past month, but it extends to many places, not the least of which is the US and upcoming election that has two very different platforms. 

END OF DRAG - What this means for markets is the potential for uncertainty and volatility which is clearly a very good thing. As traders, this is what we want to see as it invites plenty of wonderful opportunities. And so, I think these next several months will continue to be quite volatile and I will be looking to take advantage. Right now, after a rocky end to June and turbulent period in early July, the portfolio is back on track and looking pretty. There are always going to be periods of slowdown throughout the year and it looks like we're turning a corner after 4 weeks are so of a drag.

JUST A BLIP - Ideally, I'd like to close out July with a profit, so we can extend our streak of consecutive positive monthly gains to 8 months. Since portfolio inception in July 2014, there have only been three losing months and we are currently on track for our best year yet, with returns already exceeding 30%. It's funny how things work. When you are in the middle of these slower periods which are only a few weeks, they have a way of feeling like forever. But in the context of the scope of returns of the year, these past few weeks are nothing more than a regular blip. 

Funny how sometimes a few slow weeks can feel like forever. Via @joelkruger

STRATEGY - As far as strategy goes, I'm not really seeing anything all that compelling into Tuesday other than the positions we are currently running, which are long AUDNZD and short SPX500. I'm thinking USDJPY could soon stall out and there may be a very good opportunity to fade this latest wave of strength which is still corrective in nature. But as of now, there isn't any signal that would have me looking to fade the move and I will just sit back and wait for this or anything else that comes along. 

Euro, Cable, Gold, US Equities

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