Being Profitable Versus Being Right

  • A good trader knows he will be wrong many times
  • If you are solely focused on being right, you are likely to fail
  • A little bit about where I am positioned right now

NOT THE SAME - If you really want to be successful as a trader, you need to understand the difference between being profitable and being right. On the surface, they sound one and the same. But in reality, this couldn't be further from the truth. To be profitable means you are focused on "yielding advantageous returns or results." Nowhere in the definition of being profitable is there anything about being right.

THE DIFFERENCE - Now of course, you would tell me that to be profitable you need to be right. While this is true, it is also dangerously misleading. Why? Well, I think it is safe to assume that all of you are fully willing to accept the fact that profitable trading is about the big picture. Every single successful trader out there is going to have losses along the way. And every single profitable trader out there is also not going to be right every time. He knows this and fully accepts this reality. 

UNHEALTHY LINK - The problem for many traders is that they are more focused on being right, and directly associate this with being profitable. But if you are only focused on being right, there is a major risk you will be unwilling to accept when you actually may be wrong. You will be more inclined to dig into a trade that isn't going your way on fear that if you step aside, you will not be right and will have failed in the process. You will risk making a flawed association that not being right means not being profitable. 

HEALTHY FOCUS - I don't know many people out there who want to be surrounded by others that are focused on being 'right.' But I do know a lot of successful people that surround themselves with others focused on "yielding advantageous returns or results." These people aren't preoccupied with being 'right,' they are focused on the bigger picture of positive results. To get positive results, you need to take risk, and to take risk means you will have setbacks and times when you aren't right. But ultimately, if your focus is right, you will be in a much better position to yield profitable results. 

Focus more on being profitable and less on being right. Via @joelkruger

STRATEGY - Ok so enough of all that and onto some tangible stuff. We are coming off another great month, after posting returns of +4.78% in April. This puts us at an amazing +32.12% YTD! Right now, I have some interesting exposure, as I am both short the SPX500 from 2088 and long USDJPY from 106.24. I am happy and well positioned to sell more SPX500 and increase long exposure on USDJPY towards 105.00. As things correlate, these positions are somewhat offsetting, though my contention is that the Yen soon break away from correlations with risk off, which should mean both positions moving in a profitable direction. I am also looking to buy AUDNZD between 1.0700 and 1.0800. 

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