US Dollar Tense Ahead of Yellen Speech


  • Key focus for Tuesday is Yellen
  • US Dollar fate in Fed Chair's hands
  • Still love buying GOLD lower down

YELLEN SPEECH - Ok..so were back to looking at market following a nice long weekend. While currencies were trading on Friday and Monday, and while things got a little interesting Monday, in the end, nothing really happened. Right now, we have a US Dollar that has regained momentum in recent weeks, with a barrage of hawkish Fed comments fueling the gains. But all of this hawkish speak could be dismissed later today, if the Fed Chair doesn't sing a similar tune. Any signs of Yellen keeping more to the tone of the dovish March FOMC decision will likely open a more intensified sell off in the Buck. Certainly, yesterday's still subdued US PCE inflation readings haven't done anything to help the Buck. So right now, it all comes down to today's Yellen speech at the Economic Club of New York. There isn't anything else of meaning on today's calendar and we will have to see what the Fed Chair says. 

BUYING GOLD - Of course, as you all well know, as traders, we could care less about what Yellen has to say and only that she has something to say that inspires a fresh round of volatility in the market. As I scan across markets into this new week, the only thing that jumps out at me right now is GOLD. The yellow metal has pulled back from recent highs and could be poised for deeper setbacks to test $1200 in the sessions ahead. This is what I am hoping for anyway, as the case for a long position down there is quite compelling on the technical and fundamental fronts. If you want to hear more about this, just look back to my commentary on the topic from last week, here and here. But if you just want to know about the trading, I really like buying GOLD at $1200. I believe the next big move is through $1300 and any setbacks should be very well supported above $1190 on a weekly close basis. Anyway, let's ease back into it all today and see how it all plays out. As always, if I see anything else, I will let you know. 

Don't know what #Yellen will say. Just hoping for #volatility. Via @joelkruger


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