When One Door Closes...


  • Still waiting to buy GOLD dip
  • USDCAD pulls back without us
  • Stock rally poses compelling opportunity
  • Fundamentals not supportive of risk on
  • Euro, Pound focused on yield differentials
  • Markets position ahead of Friday NFPs

JUST MISSED - I was so excited about the possibility of trading either USDCAD or GOLD on Wednesday and unfortunately, the trades just didn't set up. I had my alerts ready and waiting to notify me if the levels were there and we just didn't get there. The good news is, the GOLD long trade is still a possibility as the market remains under pressure into Thursday. I will however revise my entry for the yellow metal and will now look to buy closer to $1100. I suppose the other good news is that USDCAD moved significantly lower and the short-term reversal I was looking for played out. We just missed the short by a little bit as I was more excited about selling closer to 1.3500. But as you all know, things can change quickly in this game and USDCAD could very well surge again back towards 1.3500 and give us another shot at a short. And even if that doesn't happen, we could just as quickly see the emergence of a new trade set-up somewhere else.

ANOTHER FADE - I'm already looking at this recovery in equities off the weekly lows and believe there could be a great opportunity to fade this rally if it extends some more today. I think if we get an overshoot to the 1960 area in the SPX500, it will be a great chance to sell that move. So stay tuned there. It's interesting to see the choppiness out there now. While we are seeing demand for risk currencies, the Euro has come back under pressure, while Cable is coming off 9 consecutive negative closes. It seems these markets are more focused on yield differentials and the prospect for a 2015 rate hike rather than on any recovery in sentiment. I suppose the Euro's inverse correlation with stocks is also weighing on the single currency. Moreover, softer Eurozone inflation is not helping the Euro's cause.

Fed rate hike will have major negative impact on risk markets. Via @joelkruger

CAN'T IGNORE - But don't be fooled by the rebound in stocks. I don't think this is anything more than what will be a short-lived recovery fueled off quarter end, month end flows. Perhaps the fact that China is out on holiday for a week is also a relief for investors. Yet all of this does nothing to change the fact that there is still plenty of uncertainty out there and all of this uncertainty exists with the Fed likely to push ahead with its first rate hike since 2006. This reality should not be understated as far as the negative implications on risk markets, and I would be on the lookout for a resurgence in broad based USD buying and equity selling over the coming sessions. We do get some data out today but most of the focus over the coming hours will be on positioning ahead of tomorrow's US NFP report.


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