The Wrong Kind Of Shot


NO REGRETS - While it is true we saw some movement in FX on Monday, in my view, the price action was unpredictable and the market could have moved in either direction. There is still no change to the short-term outlook, with the market locked in a choppy consolidation and waiting for its next break. It may be tempting to dip in and see what happens, but in my experience, this usually results in regret. If you were to take your shot on the weekly open, you may have thought to buy the US Dollar, with the weekend news on Greece not looking good and the likely implication the US Dollar would open higher. Indeed, the Buck did open a little higher in Asia on Monday. But if you would have bought the open, you would have seen very little follow through, with the market then moving against you as the US Dollar largely traded lower on Monday. So my point here is that it just isn't worth taking a shot based on what you think is going on, without having that really strong signal to trade the market when it really does makes sense.

SNOWBALL - I really think this is a major mistake so many traders make that often leads to their downfall. A trader will just get into a trade and take a shot and when it doesn't go their way, they will be aggravated for having taken the trade in the first place and will be extra committed to making sure they don't walk away with any kind of a loss on this trade they never should have taken. Of course, with this poisoned mindset, the trader runs the risk of digging themselves even deeper when the market doesn't come back and ultimately, they blow up. So the next time you see the market moving but not in the way that you want it to, make sure you don't take a trade just because. There are far too many wonderful opportunities to be had if you just sit back and wait it out during these times the market tries to suck you into a bad trade. Let everyone else fall on their faces trying. You just sit back and wait it out. You will be much better off for it. I promise.

Choppy markets aren't meant to be traded. Via @joelkruger

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