DATA DEPENDENT - Not a whole lot to take away from Wednesday's Fed Minutes. There really weren't any surprises and as expected, the chance for a June hike was significantly reduced, though not ruled out, and overall, the timing of a hike will be contingent on economic data. Though we saw some mild profit taking on Dollar longs post release, the Buck has retained its bid tone into Thursday. Over the past few sessions, there has been a growing optimism US economic data will start to pick back up again, reaffirming the Fed's transitory view of Q1 data. Looking ahead, Fed Vice Chair Fischer will speak later today and his comments should be watched closely, while tomorrow, Fed Chair Yellen is slated to speak on the topic of the US economic outlook. But again, the key focus right now is just how well US data can recover in the weeks ahead.
CROSSROADS - From a strategy perspective, you will just have to forgive me. It is very difficult to call the market at current levels. Here's the problem. On the one hand, you have a medium-term US Dollar uptrend that has finally seen a very healthy correction and could now be poised for bullish resumption as evidenced by the turnaround in the US Dollar's favor these past few sessions. On the other hand, you have a shorter-term downtrend in the Buck, with many traders looking to sell back into this shorter-term trend, selling the US Dollar into this rally, in anticipation of more Dollar weakness. Clearly, we have come to a crossroads. Wednesday's close hasn't shed any further light on the matter, and we will have to wait and see how it all plays out on Thursday to try and get a better handle. No new FX trades just yet, but I think we may get something later today. Stand by.