Where's The Dollar Headed?

28 Apr 2015 01:05 BST · Time Estimate: 1 minute ·

SLOW DAY - Monday was a quiet day in the market. There wasn't a whole lot of economic data and the week got off to a slow start. Of course this didn't stop stocks from continuing to push to another record high before finally stalling out to set up a nice bearish outside day and encouraging prospect for my latest SPX500 short. Meanwhile, my 1177 GOLD long from Friday worked out nicely, and I managed to capitalize on the Monday surge and book a nice little profit there. I have now put a stop-loss on the SPX500 short and will exit only if the market closes above Monday's record high. Things are expected to pick up a good deal for the remainder of the week, with central bank rate decisions from the Fed, BOJ and RBNZ, GDP reports out of the UK, US and Canada, and German employment.

DOLLAR DIRECTION - For now, it's still a big wait and see for the Dollar pairs. Though I am not trading the Dollar, I am looking for more USD weakness in the sessions ahead before the Buck tries to reassert. If you look across all the major Dollar pairs, you can see there is room for the Dollar to sell a bit before testing support. EURUSD has room to run towards 1.1000, Cable could push towards 1.5350, while USDCAD could drop to 1.1900. A lot of the Dollar weakness of late can be attributed to the market pricing in a more dovish FOMC rate decision this week in light of softer economic data. But if ahead of the event risk we see the US Dollar sell-off to any of the levels cited above, I will happily pick whichever pair looks most attractive and take my shot at buying the Buck again.

Probably best to wait a bit more before buying the Buck. Via @joelkruger

Trade Journal Performance 2016

+59.18%


+25.46% (2015) and +8.94% (2014) Launch July

View Trade Journal