A Game of 'Hard To Get'


  • GOOD TO HAVE OPINION, BUT ONLY TRADE CONVICTION
  • ALWAYS MAKE SURE THE MARKET COMES TO YOU

NO MAN'S LAND - So we have entered a kind of no man's land as far as I'm concerned. From a trading standpoint, there isn't anything compelling going on for me into Tuesday (I did however add back into AUDNZD - see Trade Journal below). We saw the Dollar top out last week and since then, the market is trying to figure out if it wants to extend the Dollar correction or jump back into the Dollar uptrend. As I outlined in Monday's commentary, the technicals would support the case for some more USD weakness, with all major markets putting in reversal weeks against the Buck.

OPINION VERSUS CONVICTION - But at the same time, the US Dollar is still in a well defined uptrend and it is hard to take a position against the Buck at current levels. When I trade the markets, I take positions I feel strongly about. So taking a shot at selling the Dollar the other week, when it was super extended and showing plenty of room for a nice reversal, seemed like a great play. But now, I kind of feel it could go either way, perhaps with a slight bias for more US Dollar weakness, but certainly not leaving me with enough conviction or desire to put capital at risk. I know many of you feel you need to be trading or you may miss an opportunity. You need to make sure you aren't thinking like this.

IN YOUR BONES - Like anything in life, the best deals have a way of finding us when we aren't desperately seeking them out. Looking is one thing, but looking doesn't mean you need to find something. I always say let the market come to you. When a trade is perfect, you know it in your bones. You don't put yourself in a position to doubt whether it was the right move or not. And even if it doesn't work out, you still have a good amount of confidence because you waited for it and it felt right. Not all trades will work out. But you know if you trade like this, most of the time they will, and it will all pay off.

HOLY GRAIL - Everybody is looking for the holy grail, but if you just slow down and stop looking, it might find you. I kind of think of the dynamics of trading like a game of 'hard to get.' It's you and the market. The more attention you give the market and the more you feel like you need to be taking positions, the more it will disrespect you and kill your self esteem. But if you keep a watch from a distance and let it know you're there without stepping in, it will be become agitated and frustrated and make the mistake of coming to you. And when it does, you will know it and feel good about the fact that the market came to you on your terms. At that point you will have the upper hand and will be well on your way to consistent and successful trading.

The trick to trading is to make sure you dictate the terms. Via @joelkruger

Only in Their Infancy

We have some new trades open but they will need more time to really get going.

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