HAPPY TO WAIT - I've finally come to a point in my career as a trader where I really feel comfortable not being in a trade. For years I struggled with this. For years I felt like I needed to always be trading something. I didn't understand that some of the best parts of trading are the times when you sit on the sidelines and just wait for the next opportunity to come your way. It sounds so simple, and yet, I had a hard time learning how to sit back and not force anything. I can't tell you how many times I forced a trade that wasn't there, only to miss out on a truly great opportunity shortly thereafter because I was stuck managing the disaster I should never have been in. A lot of being able to sit on the sidelines is rooted in confidence. To be confident is to know how to always be comfortable, even and perhaps especially in times when it may seem unconventional or impractical.
CONFIDENCE IS KING - But having confidence means having the ability to sit on the sidelines and waiting for the market to come your way, because you know it will. Most traders don't have the ability to sit on the sidelines, because they don't really believe they can actually succeed. Most traders get sucked back into the market, when they really have no business being there. But I promise, if you sit back and just wait it out, the good ones will come along. And when they do, you will be so much happier you waited. I say all of this because right now, there just isn't anything out there. I see some potential on the horizon, but nothing has set up just yet and I just need to kick back some more and wait for it.
EITHER WAY - Overall, the US Dollar has been very well bid. But at the same time, the Buck has been so well bid that the recent correction may still have more legs. We still could see another couple hundred points of USD selling and this would do nothing to compromise the Dollar's constructive outlook. So for me, the idea of buying USDs here makes little sense. At the same time, while currencies are showing potential for strength, it is hard to argue for a trade that fundamentally makes little sense and technically, has already unwound from severe oversold readings. So in the end, the best move is to wait on the sidelines until the market moves more aggressively in one direction or another. I can easily see the market going either way right now, which means I have no business taking any trade. Though it may be hard to quantify, you can never truly put a price tag on the value of a recommendation to hold onto your money and wait. So sit back and wait. I promise the next one will come. Make sure you are ready to give that trade the attention it needs when it comes a callin.